Predicting the outcome of Game 2 in the 2024 NHL Western Conference Final between the Stars and Oilers using a proven model

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The exciting NHL Western Conference Final series between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers heads to Game 2 on Saturday. Connor McDavid gave the Oilers the 1-0 series lead with the game-winning goal in Game 1. Tyler Seguin scored the game-tying goal with less than five minutes to go in regulation, but it was McDavid who found the back of the net in double-overtime for the 3-2 final.

Opening faceoff at American Airlines Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Dallas is a -138 favorite (risk $138 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Stars vs. Oilers odds from SportsLine consensus, while Edmonton is a +116 underdog. The over/under for total goals scored is 5.5 and Dallas is a -1.5 (+180) favorite on the puck line. Before making any Oilers vs. Stars picks, you need to check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

SportsLine’s model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, taking into account factors like current form, individual matchups, injuries and short- and long-term trends when making NHL picks. It entered the 2024 NHL playoffs on a 7-4 run on top-rated puck-line picks.     

Now, the model has set its sights on Stars vs. Oilers and just locked in its NHL picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the latest NHL odds and trends for Oilers vs. Stars: 

  • Stars vs. Oilers money line: Dallas -138, Edmonton +116
  • Stars vs. Oilers over/under: 5.5 goals
  • Stars vs. Oilers puck line: Dallas -1.5 (+180)
  • DAL: Jake Oettinger leads all goalies in the conference finals with a 2.11 GAA
  • EDM: Leon Draisaitl leads all skaters in the playoffs with 25 points
  • Stars vs. Oilers picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Oilers

One of the biggest surprises for Edmonton was Stuart Skinner’s performance between the pipes, and the Oilers will need an identical effort from him in Game 2. Skinner was especially effective in overtime as the Stars outshot the Oilers and did a good job of keep the puck in Edmonton’s zone. If he and the Oilers blue line can avoid late-game goals like they have given up both in Round 2 and again in Game 1 on Thursday, they have a chance of increasing their series lead.

Another big way the Oilers can increase their chances of winning is to get their depth scoring going. They showed in the last round that they can roll four lines, but relied heavily on McDavid and Draisaitl to shoulder the workload in Game 1. They will need players like Evander Kane to get hot again if they want to win on Saturday. See who to back at SportsLine

Why you should back the Stars

The Stars were able to grind out a game-tying goal late in the third frame in Game 1, so we can expect a similar effort as they try to send the series to Canada tied up 1-1. Dallas also put its depth scoring on display on Thursday, getting two goals its third-liner and veteran Seguin. If the Wyatt Johnston-centered top line can click in Game 2, the Oilers defense is going to have a hard time containing the Dallas offense.

Oettinger has been consistent all playoffs and didn’t show any rust on Thursday after not playing for nearly a week. He is expected to be even sharper with just one day’s rest and no travel. The Conn Smythe hopeful has faced a playoff high 393 shots but has only surrendered 32 goals, and he should be even more locked in for Game 2. See who to back at SportsLine

How to make Stars vs. Oilers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting six combined goals. It also says one side of the money line is the better value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Oilers vs. Stars, and which side of the money line is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Oilers vs. Stars money line to jump on Saturday, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.

The highly anticipated Game 2 of the 2024 NHL Western Conference Final between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers is set to take place tomorrow night, and fans and analysts alike are eager to see which team will come out on top. While predicting the outcome of any hockey game is never an exact science, there are certain models and factors that can be used to make an educated guess.

One proven model that has been used in the past to predict the outcome of hockey games is the Corsi model. This model takes into account a team’s Corsi For percentage, which measures the number of shot attempts a team takes compared to their opponent. A high Corsi For percentage typically indicates that a team is controlling possession and generating more scoring opportunities.

In looking at the Corsi For percentages of both the Stars and Oilers in their previous playoff games, it is clear that the Stars have had the edge. The Stars have consistently outshot their opponents and have maintained a higher Corsi For percentage throughout the playoffs. This could bode well for them in Game 2 against the Oilers.

Another factor to consider when predicting the outcome of Game 2 is the performance of each team’s top players. The Stars boast a strong offensive lineup led by superstar center Tyler Seguin, while the Oilers rely heavily on the scoring prowess of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. If these key players are able to step up and make an impact in Game 2, their respective teams could have a significant advantage.

Additionally, goaltending will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of Game 2. Both the Stars’ Ben Bishop and the Oilers’ Mikko Koskinen have been solid between the pipes throughout the playoffs, but which goaltender will be able to make the big saves when it matters most remains to be seen.

Ultimately, predicting the outcome of Game 2 in the 2024 NHL Western Conference Final between the Stars and Oilers is a difficult task. While the Corsi model and other factors can provide some insight into which team may have the upper hand, hockey is a fast-paced and unpredictable sport where anything can happen. Fans will just have to tune in tomorrow night to see which team will come out on top and take a crucial lead in the series.